TWO newly-elected Conservative MPs in the North East would lose their seats to Labour if an election was held tomorrow - and two are “too close too call”, new modelling has found.
Redcar and North West Durham have been identified as two of 32 Red Wall seats the Conservatives could lose, according to YouGov’s model of constituency vote intention.
Darlington has also been outlined by YouGov as “too close to call” alongside Stockton South.
The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, estimated using nearly 10,000 respondents, suggests the Conservatives have dropped to 41 per cent in Red Wall vote intention - seven points down on 2019
Redcar elected a Conservative MP for the first time in 2019, but modelling shows the party’s majority would dramatically fall from nine to a Labour majority of 23.
With a predicted voting intention of 34 per cent Conservative and 57 per cent Labour the current marginal seat would turn into a strong Labour win.
Read the full data from YouGov below
Redcar MP Jacob Young was first elected in 2019 and said he is determined to continue to support constituents despite the prediction.
He said: “As a born and bred Teessider, it’s the greatest honour of my life to represent the people of Redcar & Cleveland in Parliament.
“My focus is on doing everything in my power to improve the lives of every single person in this constituency - levelling up our area and transforming Teesside.
“That’s what I’m interested in and that’s what I’ll keep doing.”
North West Durham MP Richard Holden was the first Conservative to be elected in the constituency in 2019. Holden beat Labour’s Laura Pidcock, earning a two point majority, but the modelling suggests that lead would now slip.
YouGov predicts Labour would gain a 16 point majority with a voting intention of 51 per cent for Labour and 36 per cent for Conservative, turning the seat into a strong Labour gain.
Read more: MP Richard Holden fined for dropping cigarette end at election count
North West Durham Labour Party said it was encouraged by the modelling and hopes it will have proved its worthy of voters support by the next election.
A spokesman said: "North West Durham Labour Party are naturally pleased by this poll but we are a long way from an election and as a local party we are busy listening to and talking with voters.
"We were out campaigning on Saturday and hearing how they support the way the party is moving, and how they are disillusioned with the Prime Minister and Richard Holden because they are full of bluster and empty words rather than action and have delivered no “levelling up”.
"Our priority is supporting local people who are campaigning against the Consett Incinerator, for a new hospital, to Save the Derwent Walk, for better bus services which are being devastated by a lack of drivers, against speeding in our towns and villages, and to tackle anti social behaviour.
"And we are busy raising funds to help support all our local food banks to help people as Universal Credit is cut and fuel prices soar.
"We hope that when the election comes we will have proved that we are worthy of the voters support."
Richard Holden MP was contacted for comment.
Darlington’s MP Peter Gibson earned an eight point majority at the 2019 election, but that is predicted to have slipped to just two points leading to YouGov labelling the result ‘too close to call’.
Read more: Peter Gibson - 'The world is turning blue, and we're only just getting started'
Matt Vickers, MP for Stockton South, is also at risk with his 2019 election majority of 10 slipping to two.
But the Conservatives continue to hold on strongly in Bishop Auckland, increasing their majority from 18 to 21. Dehenna Davison was the first ever Conservative to win the seat, which was held by Labour since 1935.
The party’s lead is expected to decrease in Sedgefield, which elected Paul Howell MP in 2019, from 11 points to eight points but the constituency would still lean towards the Conservatives.
Keep up to date with all the latest news on our website, or follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
You can also follow our dedicated Darlington Facebook page for all the latest in the area by clicking here.
For all the top news updates from right across the region straight to your inbox, sign up to our newsletter here.
Have you got a story for us? Contact our newsdesk on newsdesk@nne.co.uk or contact 01325 505054
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel