STRICTLY speaking, the Rugby World Cup’s knockout phase does not begin until next weekend. For Scotland, however, sudden death has come seven days early.

The Scots take on Samoa in their final group game in Newcastle this afternoon, and the equation could hardly be simpler. Win, and they are guaranteed a place in the last eight against either Wales or Australia. Lose, and their tournament will be over unless Japan fail to beat the United States in their own final pool fixture tomorrow.

From the moment the World Cup schedule was announced, it always felt like Scotland’s fate would be decided in their second outing at St James’ Park. South Africa’s shock defeat to Japan threatened to muddy the waters, but having lost to the Springboks on Tyneside last weekend, Vern Cotter’s side do indeed find themselves lining up against Samoa with their necks on the line.

On paper, they should have little to fear. Samoa lost by 21 points to Japan and were thrashed by South Africa. Scotland have lost just one of their previous nine meetings with the Samoans, and that defeat came when a below-strength side travelled to South Africa in the summer of 2013.

And yet as the Rugby World Cup begins to become cut-throat, no one is prepared to take anything for granted. England’s dramatic exit has seen to that, and brought to mind an age-old adage. The bigger they are, the harder they can fall.

“You see teams starting to get knocked out and I suppose that rams home that we’re starting to get towards the business end of this now,” said Scotland hooker Ross Ford, who hails from just over the border in the rugby-playing heartland of Kelso.

“It’s the last game of the group, and we need to win it to get to the quarter-finals so it couldn’t really be any more clear-cut for us.

“We’ve worked hard for this moment right from the start of pre-season. Knowing that teams are going home does make the whole thing feel a bit more real I suppose. We know we’ve got a massive job on to get the result we need and go on in the competition.”

As one of the elder statesmen in the Scotland squad, Ford does not have to delve too deeply into his memory banks to be reminded of how traumatic a World Cup exit can be.

The 31-year-old was part of the side that became the first Scottish team to fail to make it beyond the group stage when they suffered defeats to both Argentina and England in 2011.

Back then, the Scottish players were literally forced out of their New Zealand hotel on the morning after their exit was confirmed because the World Cup organisers needed the rooms for other teams still left in the competition.

The experience was a traumatic one, and with a large number of survivors having retained their place for this tournament, it will provide a powerful source of inspiration ahead of this afternoon’s game.

“The whole thing was pretty disappointing from our point of view four years ago,” said Ford. “We didn’t do ourselves justice and it was very frustrating to go out like that. It’s something you remember, but there’s no point dwelling on the past.

“That’s gone now, and it’s about staying in the moment and looking ahead. We gave ourselves a bit of momentum after the first game in this tournament. We beat Japan and the USA, and that allowed us to go into the South Africa game knowing we would have been through if we’d won.

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“We just didn’t play very well, so it comes down to this game instead. We’re fortunate we’ve got this chance to do it, and it’s up to us to do the business now.”  

As well as taking solace from their wins over Japan and the United States, Scotland’s players will also benefit from the support of an army of Scottish fans who have trooped over the border ahead of today’s game.

Last weekend, an estimated 30,000 Scots were packed into St James’, and with Samoa expected to have far fewer supporters than South Africa, the Saltire should be even more prominent this afternoon.

“You can use that to your advantage, although everybody’s different,” said Ford. “It’s always nice coming into a ground when you’ve got everybody cheering you on. We just have to be careful that we don’t get carried up and swept away in it.

“You’ve got to keep on an even keel, but you can use the atmosphere to buoy your mood a bit. You can hear them during the game, and last weekend it was great to hear Flower of Scotland being sung in the stands. It’s good to have support like that behind you.”

Ford’s place in today’s game was in doubt when he received a knock to the head in the defeat to South Africa, but he has successfully come through the IRB’s concussion protocol and will line up in a Scottish front row containing three club mates from Edinburgh.

“I feel fine,” he said. “There’s a procedure you have to go through – they test you to see if you can remember a whole load of random words in order. They tell you a load of numbers, and they get longer, and you have to remember them backwards.

“Standing on a line and closing your eyes, all that kind of stuff. There’s a baseline. You do it when you’re all right, and then they can look back at that and compare.”

It has not been a good week for Scottish sport, with Robert Lewandowski’s injury-time equaliser on Thursday ending the nation’s footballers’ hopes of reaching next summer’s European Championships in France.

With England and Northern Ireland having qualified, and Wales set to book their place if they win in Bosnia tomorrow, Scotland’s sport fans desperately need a fillip. It is up to Ford and the rest of his team-mates to provide it.

“I suppose it’s a chance to get people smiling again,” he said. “I didn’t see the (football) game but I heard it was maybe a bit unlucky at the end with a very late goal. That’s sport.”