CHRIS COLEMAN has begun his planning for Sunderland’s future with a simple template – “We just need to look and see what’s happened in the last five years, and then do the opposite.”

Coleman leads his side into action against Norwich City this evening knowing the outcome at the Stadium of Light will have a massive impact on where Sunderland are playing next season. Win, and depending on what Bolton Wanderers do at home to Millwall, the Black Cats could be within four points of safety with four games still to play. Lose, and if other results go against them, they could be relegated when they travel to Reading at the weekend.

The odds are firmly stacked against Coleman’s side, but the Black Cats boss is refusing to throw in the towel. Nevertheless, he admits he has been planning for next season with a number of different scenarios in mind.

Clearly, relegation would have a major impact on Sunderland’s financial position, not to mention the calibre of player they might be able to attract. The future ownership of the club is even more important, with Coleman still in the dark when it comes to Ellis Short’s plans. Either way, though, the mistakes of the last decade cannot be repeated. Win, lose or draw in the next few games, fundamental changes will still be required.

“We’ve already started planning for next season in terms of recruitment,” said the Sunderland boss, who has suffered a double injury blow with Paddy McNair and Marc Wilson both picking up problems that will keep them out of tonight’s game. “Of course a lot of people we talk to, they say, ‘Yeah’ and they’re excited because it’s Sunderland, but they want to know where we’re going to be and who’s going to be in charge of the club.

“A lot of players are very excited and want to come here, which is great. They want to come no matter what league we’re in, and that’s good for us. But it is very sticky because of the uncertainty.

“Until we know who’s above us and they can say, ‘You’ve got this or you haven’t got it’, it’s difficult. Even if the answer is that we haven’t got it, at least we know where we are.

“At the moment we have a Plan A and Plan B. Until we know which direction we’re heading, it’s draining for everybody. Everybody is waiting and waiting. We’ll rebuild with whichever plan we need. We just need to look and see what’s happened in the last five years, and do the opposite.”

While Coleman has discussed Sunderland’s long-term future with the club’s chief executive, Martin Bain, his more immediate focus has been trained on this evening’s game with a Norwich side that beat promotion-seeking Aston Villa at the weekend.

In the wake of his own side’s weekend draw at Leeds, Coleman conceded that Championship survival was becoming an increasingly unlikely prospect. Even if Sunderland were to win tonight, they would still require at least another two victories to have any chance of clambering out of the bottom three, but while there is even the remotest chance of avoiding the drop, Coleman will be urging his players to keep believing.

Sunderland’s last three performances have been a marked improvement from the majority of their displays under the former Wales boss, and for all that their record at the Stadium of Light remains abject, Coleman sees no reason for fear or trepidation tonight.

“I still think it’s on,” he said. “We can get to the situation of a four-point gap with four games to play. I still think that’s a huge possibility, and from there, we can survive. Maybe we won’t, but it’s not impossible.

“We’re at home, so all our supporters will probably be saying, ‘Yeah, but we’re playing at home’. They’ll be thinking that we perform better away. But it’s just that one game. It’s not going to define us for the rest our lives if we go into the game, give everything, and get it wrong. It will hurt us though if we go into it and we fall down in terms of our performance.

“The big question here is, ‘Can we give everything we’ve got in front of our own supporters, who we’ve disappointed a lot, in an environment that is not a great atmosphere – that has been created by us? Can we deal with that and get over it for one 90-minute game?’

“The prize at the end of it is unbelievable, so surely it’s worth emptying and giving everything you’ve got? If we’re going to miss out, let’s miss out doing it in the right way.”

McNair’s absence is a major blow, with the Northern Irish midfielder having been Sunderland’s best performer since returning from a previous injury in the 4-1 win at Derby.

The former Manchester United trainee damaged his knee in the weekend game at Elland Road, although the problem is not related to the cruciate ligament injury that kept him out of action for more than a year earlier in his Sunderland career.

“It’s completely different to the knee injury he was out with for so long,” said Coleman. “He just landed badly and jarred his knee. We couldn’t risk him in training, and we’re not expecting him to be recovered enough to play.

“If he is, brilliant. But I don’t think it’s going to happen. He just took a bit of a bad landing on Saturday, and I think there was a bit of pressure from the tackle as well. It’s nothing serious, it’s just the quick turnaround.”

Sunderland (probable, 4-1-4-1): Camp; Love, Kone, O’Shea, Oviedo; Cattermole; Gooch, Honeyman, Ejaria, McGeady; Fletcher.