PRIOR to Sunderland’s game with Manchester City at the weekend, David Moyes was targeting five wins from 12 matches in order to keep his side safe. A few days on, and the equation has already become five from 11.

Given the Black Cats have only won five of the 27 league games they have played so far this season, it goes without saying that survival is now an unlikely prospect. Unlikely, but not impossible, and while Moyes has come in for a fair amount of criticism after striking an optimistic note in the wake of Sunday’s 2-0 defeat at the Stadium of Light, he has to cling to any positives he can find as he looks to emulate his four most immediate predecessors, who all guided Sunderland to safety against the odds.

What are the positives at the moment? The presence of Jermain Defoe, although it is hard to see what the striker can do if he is starved of service as was the case at the weekend. The possibility of players returning from injury is another potential plus point, with Jan Kirchhoff, Victor Anichebe and Lee Cattermole all having the capability of adding something if they can return to full fitness before the end of the season.

Ultimately, though, Sunderland’s fate will be determined by the fixture list, and perhaps that, more than anything, is why it is premature to completely write off the possibility of another ‘Great Escape’. At this stage of the season, you want to be playing your direct rivals if you are looking to overhaul them, and Moyes’ side still have the potential to inflict a fair amount of damage on the teams in and around them in the table.

Five of Sunderland’s remaining 11 matches pit them against teams in the six places directly above them. They face away games at Leicester, Hull and Middlesbrough, and still have to host Bournemouth and Swansea. When Moyes is talking about the need for five wins, he surely has more than half-an-eye on those five games.

“We know we are running out of time, but we also know this is not finished yet,” said centre-half Lamine Kone, who was a key member of the team that scrambled to safety under Sam Allardyce last season. “There are still plenty of games for us to keep ourselves safe, and we have to keep believing we can do it.

“The matches coming up soon will be the most important ones, because we still have to play a lot of the teams that are around us in the table. If we can win those games, it will make a lot of difference. We have beaten some of those teams already this season, so we can do the same again.”

Of the five league wins Sunderland have recorded this term, three came in a four-week spell in November and December. A 2-1 win at Bournemouth was followed by home victories over Hull and Leicester, and for probably the only time all season, the Wearsiders looked like a team with an effective formation, shape and game plan.

Much of that plan revolved around Anichebe providing a physical threat to complement Defoe, and for all that he arrived as an unheralded free transfer, the 28-year-old’s fitness could be the single biggest factor in determining Sunderland’s fate in the games that remain.

With Anichebe alongside Defoe, and Kirchhoff anchoring the midfield, might Sunderland be capable of at least keeping themselves in contention when they face Burnley, Watford and Leicester in their next three matches?

“They are the games that are probably going to decide things,” admitted Kone.  “We still to have play against Swansea, Middlesbrough and Hull, and even Burnley in the next game.

“Playing in those games is different to playing against Manchester City, so they are the matches that will decide things for us. If we win those games, we will be okay. Man City were very strong against us, but the next game is against Burnley and that will be a very different challenge.”

Burnley have already beaten Sunderland twice this season of course, and the Black Cats’ capitulation at Turf Moor on New Year’s Eve, as they crashed to a 4-1 defeat, represents one of the lowest points of the campaign.

Sunderland have only picked up two points since then, but Kone insists morale remains largely undamaged. For all that Sunday’s defeat was disappointing, it was not a case of the players downing tools, and there is still a shared belief that the current situation is far from irretrievable.

“The most important thing is that we have to stay strong now,” said Kone. “We have to stay together and stay focused because that is the only way we will get ourselves out of this.

“It can be hard to stay positive, especially when you haven’t won for a few games in a row, but you have to stay positive and continue to believe in yourselves. As a team, I think we are still doing that. We are focused on what we have to do. I know it is very difficult for the fans of the club at the moment, but me and my team are doing everything we can to try to put this right.”