Sam Allardyce expects Newcastle to pose the biggest threat to Sunderland's survival hopes

The Black Cats edged out of the bottom three when they drew with Arsenal last weekend, but things could hardly be tighter given that they are on the same points total as Norwich City and are just a point clear of Newcastle, who have played a game more than both of their rivals.

Sunderland travel to Stoke tomorrow, at the same time as Newcastle host Crystal Palace, and while Norwich will still hope to be a factor in the survival battle, Allardyce expects the Magpies to be his side’s biggest threat as they attempt to safeguard their top-flight status.

After taking on a Palace side that will have at least half-an-eye on next month’s FA Cup final after last weekend’s semi-final win over Watford, Newcastle travel to Villa Park in eight days’ time to take on an Aston Villa team that are in meltdown as they prepare to kick off next season in the Championship.

Allardyce fully expects Newcastle to claim six points from their next two games, meaning Sunderland will need to claim at least five points from their final four matches in order to survive.

“Newcastle will win on Saturday,” said the Black Cats manager. “I’d have a bet on that if I could. Newcastle pose the bigger threat to our survival.

“I think they’ll beat Palace and they’ve got Villa, then it depends on what Spurs do there. So I think they’ll win at least two.”

Today marks the 20th anniversary of Kevin Keegan’s infamous “I would love it” rant, which was a response to Sir Alex Ferguson’s suggestion that Nottingham Forest would not be trying when they took on the Magpies in the final weeks of the 1995-96 season.

In an echo of Ferguson’s comments, which were interpreted at the time as mind games, Allardyce has suggested that Palace will inevitably lack motivation when they travel to St James’ Park tomorrow.

Alan Pardew has insisted his players will not be distracted by their impending Wembley appearance, and the former Newcastle boss has a personal incentive to scupper the Magpies’ survival hopes after his own spell on Tyneside ended in an acrimonious manner.

However, Allardyce maintains it will be extremely difficult for Palace’s players to lift themselves tomorrow, meaning Sunderland will have to win at the Britannia Stadium if they want to retain their position outside the bottom three.

“Palace are in the FA Cup final, and they would all have been celebrating, they would all have been on the pop,” he said. “They won’t be mentally ready for it, and neither will Alan because he’ll be thinking about the final now, not thinking about Newcastle away.

“You’re not going to stop the lads celebrating having got through to a final, particularly Crystal Palace, because it’s such a good achievement for the club, the fans, Alan and the owner – there is such euphoria around the place.

“It may well serve in reverse. He could say, ‘Off you go lads, go and play today and relax, the result doesn’t matter as much’, and they might win.

“But it could go the other way, ‘Ooh, I’ve had a couple of good days and I don’t want to get injured for the final. I might just stay out of that tackle’. Who knows? I suspect it might be the latter.”

Allardyce continues to insist that defensive resilience will be the key to keeping Sunderland in the top-flight, and the 61-year-old has cited Atletico Madrid’s position in the last four of the Champions League and as joint leaders of La Liga as proof of the importance of keeping clean sheets.

Atletico boss Diego Simeone has moulded an extremely well-organised line-up that regularly out-work their opponents, and while Real Madrid have shipped 32 goals this season, their city rivals have conceded just 16 goals in their 35 La Liga matches.

“Everybody goes on about goals, goals and more goals,” said Allardyce. “But if you want the perfect example, you take Atletico Madrid, who have a superbly-drilled team which is a breath of fresh air today.

“I coach defending an awful lot, but I don't think too many teams in the Premier League or in the world of football or in Europe actually coach defending anymore, certainly not the full-backs.

“It's an art, defending - everybody has forgotten that – it's a tactical art to be able to sense danger and block people's crosses and get your toe in without fouling them now, and they (Atletico) are very, very good at it indeed.”