Is Newcastle United's recent form a blip - or a cause for serious concern?

THREE POINTS FROM NINE OVER CHRISTMAS – IT’S TIME TO PRESS THE PANIC BUTTON ISN’T IT?

Not really. Newcastle’s form has dipped since they strung together nine successive victories between September and November, but they were never going to sustain that kind of record over the whole of a season.

Yes, they have lost top spot to Brighton, and yes, they will only have a three-point advantage over Reading if the side currently sitting in third position win their game in hand. But compared to most promoted teams in the last few seasons, they are still in an extremely healthy position with 21 games to go.

Newcastle have 52 points from 25 Championship matches, and since 2000, only nine other teams have been in as good a position at the same stage of the campaign. All were promoted, and last season’s Middlesbrough side were the only ones not to finish as champions.

When Newcastle were last promoted as champions in 2010, they had exactly the same number of points after 25 games. They failed to win three of their next five matches too, so while the last couple of weeks might have been disappointing, they are certainly no barrier to promotion.

SO THERE’S NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT THEN?

Well, that’s not exactly true either. This is certainly no crisis, but having watched his side lose four of their last eight league games, it would be foolish for Rafael Benitez to ignore some of the warning signs that have become apparent in the last eight weeks.

Three of those defeats have come courtesy of a 1-0 scoreline, with Newcastle also having lost 1-0 at Fulham on the opening day of the season. Dwight Gayle has been in sensational goalscoring form this term, but in some respects, his performances have masked attacking failings elsewhere.

Take Gayle out of the equation, and Newcastle’s joint second-leading goalscorers are Yoan Gouffran and Matt Ritchie with four goals apiece.  Back in 2010, Chris Hughton’s Newcastle side were capable of scoring goals from anywhere. That isn’t really the case with this team.

The Magpies’ home form is also a concern, with no other team in the current top seven having matched their record of suffering four home defeats. That wasn’t such a compelling issue when Newcastle were sweeping all before them on their travels, but with the away form having dipped, improving results at St James’ is now essential.

WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS THAT HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT?

Newcastle aren’t a one-man team, but it can be argued that they possess two players who are pretty much irreplaceable. The first is Jonjo Shelvey, and it is hardly a coincidence that their recent blip has coincided with the first three games of the midfielder’s five-match ban.

Without Shelvey, Newcastle lack a controlling force at the heart of midfield. In their Boxing Day defeat to Sheffield Wenesday, and also in the following game against Nottingham Forest, they needed someone to put their foot on the ball and dictate the tempo of the game. At Blackburn on Monday, they were crying out for someone with a creative range of passing. Jack Colback has come into the side, but is not a like-for-like replacement for Shelvey.

The other key performer is Gayle, and when their leading goalscorer is not firing, it is hard to see how Newcastle are going to hurt their opponents in the final third. Benitez has clearly lost faith in Aleksandar Mitrovic, while Daryl Murphy has spent most of his time in the shadows since signing from Ipswich in the summer.

Quite rightly, Newcastle’s Spanish manager has been praised for his rebuilding job in the wake of relegation. But does he need to develop a Plan B for when things are not going his side’s way? He is firmly wedded to a 4-2-3-1 formation, but does he need greater flexibility in certain scenarios, perhaps switching to two centre-forwards when he is chasing a game?

WHAT CAN BENITEZ DO TO CHANGE THINGS?

Enter the transfer market is the logical suggestion, and having previously claimed he was unlikely to do major business this month, it is telling that Benitez is already changing tack. The January transfer window is no longer about planning for life in the Premier League – it is now being viewed as an opportunity to plug a couple of short-term gaps.

Hence the interest in a range of potential Premier League loan moves, with Benitez targeting players who can come into the side and make an instant impact in the second half of the season. Bolstering the heart of midfield is a priority, with Tom Cleverley topping a wanted list that also features Fabian Delph and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

Ideally, Benitez would also like to sign a winger, with Christian Atsu’s absence at the Africa Cup of Nations likely to highlight a weakness in that area, and potentially another striker, although that could prove difficult in January.

Tactically, the Newcastle boss could also look to make some changes, perhaps tinkering with the midfield mix in an attempt to add some extra creativity in the central area.

WITH THE FESTIVE PERIOD OUT OF THE WAY, WHERE DO NEWCASTLE GO FROM HERE?

Birmingham is the simple answer, although Saturday’s FA Cup third-round tie is hardly a priority for either club. For once, a Newcastle manager will be able to make a host of changes for a cup game, and very few supporters will grumble.

The league programme resumes with a trip to Brentford, before bottom club Rotherham visit St James’ for what should be an inviting home game.

The month is supposed to end with a trip to league leaders Brighton, and if that game takes place on January 28, it could be a defining moment in terms of the remainder of the campaign. If either side progresses to the FA Cup fourth round, however, their league meeting will be postponed until later in the season.