WHEN Nottingham Forest began the season by going undefeated in their opening 11 matches in the Championship, Aitor Karanka was convinced Stuart Pearce had every chance of leading an automatic promotion charge.

But between mid-September and January 10, Pearce was only able to oversee two more league wins and he eventually paid the price and lost his job at the club where his playing ability earned him legendary status.

Such an alarming dip in form has left his successor, Dougie Freedman, trying to narrow a gap to the play-offs which still stands at 11 points despite a recent upturn following Pearce’s departure last month.

Former Bolton boss Freedman has won all three of his matches at the City Ground since taking over, so Middlesbrough head coach Karanka thinks his side have a difficult task on their hands this afternoon when a victory will guarantee retention of top spot.

“I think at the start of the season Forest were brilliant,” said Karanka. “Stuart was manager of the month in August time. After that they dropped off. I don’t know what happened because I am not there.

“They have an amazing squad for the Championship. At the beginning of the season, I expected Nottingham to be at the top of the table. I am surprised they have dropped but we know it will be hard.

“It will be a tough game. They have a lot of very good players. I think they lost points in the middle of the season but now they are winning. With the new manager they will be better organised and they have very good players.”

While Karanka has overseen a significant transformation in fortunes at Middlesbrough, he knows that he will not finish phase one of the job until he has sealed promotion back to the Premier League.

Freedman has been appointed at the City Ground with the same remit and Karanka is an admirer of what he has done in a short space of time – even if he may never have been given the opportunity had he been managing elsewhere.

 “I think with the new manager they have lost just the last game at Charlton, they have won five and drawn one so they are confident but we are playing for three very important points,” said Karanka.

“For me it is a good thing that he is doing well so soon after he left Bolton. In Spain that can't happen because in Spain when you are sacked you can't take another job in the same season, so it's good because he was sacked from Bolton and now he can be manager of the month. I am pleased for him because he is doing a really good job.”

Freedman has been impressed with the quality of Middlesbrough’s signings under Karanka, and regards the Teessiders’ squad as one of the strongest in the league.

Boro secured a convincing 3-0 win over Forest when the two sides met at the Riverside on Boxing Day, but despite their midweek stutter, Freedman is confident his players are capable of turning the tables this afternoon.

“It will be a tight game, but it’s a winnable game of football if we approach it right,” said the Forest boss, whose initial contract only runs to the end of the season. “Physically, we’re in good shape – mentally we need to make sure we approach the game with the belief that we can go and win it.

“They (Middlesbrough) play in a very structured way. They’ve got very good individual players, and they’ve spent a lot of money very wisely on young and hungry players, so we’ve got to make sure that we are there until the 95th minute.

“The game will probably be won between the 80th and 90th minutes. We need to make sure we’re still in the game at that time, and that we are the team with the momentum in the last ten because that will be the key to it.

“We need to use our experience at home, and hope that the fans are right behind us.”