FOR the last year or so, Amanda Staveley has been telling her closest associates that she would love to buy a Premier League football club.

For the same period of time, Mike Ashley has been telling anyone who would listen that he would love to sell one. Two parties, one deal. It is time to see just how serious the pair really are.

Having seen her initial bid rejected, the ball is effectively in Staveley’s court when it comes to what happens next. When news of PCP Capital Partners’ formal offer first broke on Monday night, the headline figure of £300m was the one that attracted all the attention.

In fact, that was something of a red herring, as the bid was only ever going to be worth £300m if Newcastle hit a series of performance-related targets, one of which is understood to have related to the club winning the Champions League. There’s nothing wrong with aiming high, but it’s probably understandable that Ashley didn’t feel he could start relying on that money coming through just yet.

Sources close to the negotiations claim Staveley feels Ashley should be willing to accept a lower fee if he is being offered the full sale price in one lump sum. Ironically, this is how the Newcastle owner has preferred to do business during his time at St James’ Park, rejecting the opportunity to buy a player with staggered payments in an attempt to drive down the headline price. This time, though, he is on the other side of the transaction, and wants the final settlement to be as high as possible.

How much is Ashley asking for? That is the £350m question in all of this. Or maybe the £380m one. Or maybe £400m. The truth is nobody really knows, and at this stage of discussions, that probably applies to Staveley too. Until she is able to enter into a period of exclusivity, she is effectively feeling her way around Ashley’s thoughts.

The bare facts are that Ashley spent £134.4m on buying Newcastle when he took over from Sir John Hall and Freddy Shepherd, and has subsequently pumped in a further £129m in the form of interest-free loans. Add that together and you get £263.4m. Unless he has made any recent investments that will not have shown up on the most recent set of accounts, that is the minimum fee Ashley needs to be able to turn a profit.

With that in mind, it is easy to see why a sum short of £300m was rejected out of hand. Ashley knows only too well that his investment is vulnerable to the effects of relegation, and having watched his side clamber out of the Championship on two separate occasions during his tenure, the fear of a third spell in the second tier is one of the main drivers behind his desire to sell.

However, he also knows that the Premier League remains one of global sport’s biggest cash cows, and with the next round of broadcasting negotiations expected to deliver even greater riches, he remains in charge of a hugely lucrative asset. And that’s before the value of what is effectively free advertising for Sports Direct is thrown into the equation.

That advertising could prove a major sticking point in the future, as it is not merely the headline price of any deal that still needs to be thrashed out. The price Staveley is willing to pay for Newcastle United is crucially important, but the contractual agreements that accompany any transaction will be every bit as significant when it comes to determining whether a resolution is possible.

Staveley’s current insistence on a relegation clause, reducing the fee she would have to pay in the event of Newcastle dropping out of the Premier League this season, is understandable given that Rafael Benitez’s side currently find themselves just five points clear of the drop zone after losing their last three matches. If there is only minimal investment during the January transfer window because takeover talks remain ongoing, the risk of relegation becomes even more pronounced.

Equally though, having pumped in money to steady the ship when Newcastle were relegated in the past, it is also easy to see why Ashley might regard the threat of another demotion as part of the overall package. You pay your money, and you take your chance on the final outcome come May.

This is where give-and-take comes in, and there have been mounting suggestions that Ashley would like to secure an agreement that would guarantee him advertising or naming privileges for Sports Direct for a five-year period after any sale.

The global appeal of the Premier League makes the Sports Direct branding plastered all over St James’ Park one of the most lucrative aspects of Ashley’s involvement with Newcastle. He will be extremely loath to give it up, but by the same token, Staveley will be understandably reluctant to write off such a valuable revenue stream. When Ashley took over Newcastle, he was furious that future sponsorship money had already been spent. The boot is on the other foot now, because he might well find himself asking Staveley to forego a significant strand of income in order to facilitate a deal.

Would Staveley’s Middle-Eastern backers agree to that? While there has been suggestions that some of the money behind last week’s bid might have originated in China, the majority of PCP Capital Partners’ investment pot has always been comprised of Middle-Eastern funds.

It remains to be seen whether those funds have been committed by wealthy individuals or sovereign wealth funds, but the experience of Manchester City and Paris St Germain, both of which are now owned by institutions or individuals based in the Gulf, shows that branding and the projection of a state or business concern is one of the key drivers behind Middle-Eastern investment in European football. Hence the ‘Etihad Stadium’ and PSG’s shirts emblazoned with the ‘Fly Emirates’ logo. Would a Middle-Eastern investor really be willing to dilute that brand projection with a host of hoardings promoting the latest cut-price offerings from Sports Direct?

It is extremely unlikely, but that is just one of the many thorny issues that will be up for discussion as talks continue. For now, it is surely a positive that a bid has been lodged and the channels of communication are open. Staveley wants to buy, Ashley wants to sell. Ultimately, that must surely count for something. But that doesn’t mean an agreement is either imminent or inevitable. There is still some way to go in this one yet.