WHAT is the best way to avoid relegation? Be solid, well-organised and hard to beat, but struggle to score goals and win matches, or be much more open and susceptible to defeat, but boast an attacking threat that means you’re always liable to pull off a surprise victory?

As they prepare to tackle potentially crucial home games on Saturday, Middlesbrough and Sunderland are separated by just two points in the bottom six positions in the table. For Boro, it has been a case of slow and sensible in the opening two-thirds of the campaign. For the Black Cats, life has been much more chaotic.

The upshot, though, is that the clubs are in pretty much the same position with 14 games to go. Assuming they continue down roughly the same track, which is the likelier to avoid relegation?

Aitor Karanka will claim his philosophy at Middlesbrough is the right one. The Teessiders have not spent a single minute in the relegation zone this season, boast comfortably the best goal difference in the bottom seven positions and have suffered the same number of away defeats as Everton and West Brom.

Liverpool are the only team to beat them by more than two goals, and no matter who they come up against, you always feel there is precious little chance of them being embarrassed.

Karanka deserves some credit for that. It is not easy to make a newly-promoted side so defensively sound, and it is the strength of Boro’s organisation, work rate and midfield resilience that has enabled them to keep their heads above water to this point.

Karanka constantly talks about “trusting in our style”, and rightly points out that his preferred way of playing was good enough to secure promotion from the Championship last season. Given his squad is hardly overflowing with attacking options, it is easy to see why he regards a solid back four and a hard-working central-midfield trio as essential requirements if his side is not to be overrun.

Yet all season long, there has been a nagging doubt about whether those attributes will be sufficient in the end. Boro have only recorded four victories all season, fewer than any other team in the top-flight, and while their tally of nine draws is commendable, it might not be good enough if the same trend continues while the rest of the teams in the relegation fight are starting to work out how to win games.

Adopting the 38-point yardstick for survival, but accepting it might well take less to remain in the top-flight this season, Boro are 17 points short with 14 games to go. Five wins would probably do. Drop that to three though, and you’re looking at Boro having to draw more than three-quarters of their remaining matches. Even for a side with their doggedness, that looks an impossible task.

Boro are going to have to find a way to win. Their home matches against Sunderland and Burnley look inviting, but their key games – against Crystal Palace, Stoke, Swansea, Hull and Bournemouth – all take place away from the Riverside.

Karanka has only overseen one away win all season – at the Stadium of Light in August – so it’s not unreasonable to suggest he will have to tinker with his tactics in the next three weeks. Thus far, however, his inflexibility remains as entrenched as ever.

David Moyes has had to be anything but inflexible at Sunderland, and there have been times this season when the Scotsman must have felt more like a fire-fighter putting out blazes wherever he turned than a football manager trying to patiently build a squad.

There must have been moments when Moyes felt like throwing the towel in, particularly when injuries were mounting just as owner Ellis Short was pulling the rug from underneath him, yet the Sunderland manager has somehow made it to February with a side that remains firmly in the survival mix. Not only that, but they will head into a winnable game against Southampton today on the back of not only their best performance of the season, but arguably the best display produced by any of the sides in the bottom six this term.

Watching the Black Cats click into gear against Crystal Palace last weekend, it was tempting to conclude that this is simply what they do. Awful in August and September, not much better from October through to February, showing signs of marginal improvement around Easter time and then all-but-unbeatable in the final month of the campaign. It is a template that seems to have become the Wearside way.

That is not to say Moyes will necessarily follow in the footsteps of Paulo Di Canio, Gus Poyet, Dick Advocaat and Sam Allardyce of course, but it does suggest some of the building blocks for a successful survival push are already in place.

Chief among them, of course, is Jermain Defoe, and provided he remains fit, the irrepressible 34-year-old looks certain to add to the 14 Premier League goals he has already claimed this season. With Defoe in the side, Sunderland always look capable of scoring, and towards the end of the season, when the pressure is always that little bit more intense, that can be crucial.

There have been times this season when Sunderland have effectively been a one-man band, but with key players returning, that is no longer the case. Jordan Pickford is just about ready to return from injury, Lamine Kone was back to his very best at Selhurst Park last weekend, Didier Ndong is producing performances that befit his club-record purchase tag and even Jack Rodwell is starting to hit something close to his peak form.

Add Defoe, and you suddenly have the making of a pretty decent spine. Sunderland’s remaining fixtures are a bit of a mixed bag, but three of their last four games pit them against Bournemouth, Hull and Swansea. On previous evidence, and provided Defoe is available, would you bet against them winning all three?

Whereas it is difficult to see Middlesbrough claiming five wins between now and the end of the season, it feels easier to envisage Sunderland stringing that kind of record together.

There might well be a few heavy defeats along the way – and for all that last weekend’s first half was sensational, you couldn’t rule out Sunderland being 3-0 down to Southampton at the half-hour mark of Saturday’s game. Even on a bad day, Boro wouldn’t capitulate like that against Everton.

But ‘win one, lose one’ is always going to be better than ‘draw two’. The bookmakers still make Sunderland heavily odds-on to be relegated, while Boro are a shade of odds-against. Time will tell whether their opinion is justified.