When is the best time to play the Germans? (From The Northern Echo)

When is the best time to play the Germans?

6:15am Saturday 17th June 2006

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IMAGINE the scene. Ecuador have played out an entertaining 2-2 draw with Germany in their final group game on Tuesday afternoon.

As a result, the South Americans have finished top of Group A, courtesy of a better goal difference than the hosts. Germany have still qualified for the World Cup second round, but they have done so as runners-up.

Five hours later, and England are trailing 1-0 to Sweden as their final group game enters stoppage time.

But just as the referee is about to blow the final whistle, Wayne Rooney bursts into the penalty area and is bundled over in the box. A spot-kick is awarded, and Frank Lampard stands over the ball on the penalty spot.

The choice he is presented with is stark. Score, and England draw 1-1, top Group B and take on Germany in round two. Miss, and England lose, finish one point behind Sweden and earn a second-round date with Ecuador.

As David Coleman used to say on "A Question Of Sport", what happens next?

At the moment, of course, the question is purely hypothetical. By Tuesday night, though, it might not be.

Through no fault of their own, England's players could find themselves in a situation where it would actually be better to lose a game rather than win it. For a nation that has historically prided itself on its sense of fair play, it would be a difficult call to make.

And that, perhaps, is part of the beauty of the World Cup. Events conspire in a weird and wonderful manner, fortunes are transformed in an instant and absolutely nothing is set in stone.

When the draw was made last Autumn, it all seemed so clear. Get the first two group games out of the way, as England have done in a workmanlike if unspectacular manner. Then, with Sweden having won both of their games as well, beat the Scandinavians to avoid a hazardous clash with the hosts.

Sometimes, however, the best laid plans go to waste. For once, it is not England who have reneged on their side of the bargain. Instead, the unexpected strength of the Ecuadorians has threatened to throw a massive spanner into the works.

But isn't that self-same strength a good enough reason to leave the identity of England's second-round opponents to fate? If Ecuador are good enough to have beaten Poland and Costa Rica, and able to hold Germany to at least a draw on Tuesday, surely they are good enough to beat England as well?

Possibly, but the two things do not necessarily tally. Previous World Cups have been littered with examples of teams who have done wonderful things in the group stage, only to collapse once the real action begins.

Ecuador have undoubtedly been far stronger than expected. In Ivan Hurtado, they possess a rugged centre-half who has emerged as one of the best defenders in the tournament and, in coach Luis Fernando Suarez, they boast a tactician who has perfected the counter-attacking style.

By sitting back and soaking up English pressure, Ecuador would present the same problems that have perplexed Sven-Goran Eriksson's players in their opening two World Cup games.

But - and this is a crucial but - Ecuador are not Germany. They do not have the raucous home support that spurred Jurgen Klinsmann's side to Wednesday's last-gasp winner against Poland. They do not have the likes of Michael Ballack and Miroslav Klose, players who have proven themselves on the international stage in the past.

And, just as significantly, they do not have the kind of psychological hold that Germany continue to exert over England despite 2001's fantastic 5-1 win.

As they proved on that glorious night in Munich, England's players are more than capable of beating Germany. But would they really want to tempt fate at so early a stage in the competition?

If England were to face Ecuador next weekend, they could then not meet Germany until the final. Surely that would be a better time to attempt a repeat of 1966?

All of which, of course, brings us back to Lampard's penalty.

Ultimately, it might never happen. Germany could grind out a win on Tuesday afternoon and England would then need at least a draw to avoid their nemesis.

The way things are going, though, I doubt Tuesday's events will be quite as simple as that. England's ethics, as well as their football skills, could be tested in three days' time.

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