Johnson still has everything to prove (From The Northern Echo)

Johnson still has everything to prove

10:09am Saturday 7th February 2009

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Six weeks of world-class rugby kicks off this afternoon, as the RBS 6 Nations gets underway. But who will emerge top of the pile come March 21? Scott Wilson offers his verdict.

IT wasn’t meant to be like this. When Martin Johnson was confirmed as Brian Ashton’s successor last summer, English rugby was supposed to have identified the source of its salvation.

Johnson, the totemic captain of England’s successful World Cup campaign, was the personification of everything that the Twickenham faithful held dear.

Strong enough to cut a swathe through the clubversus- country politics that have riddled the English game for more than decade, yet astute enough to accept that the Red Rose has to embrace the expansive running rugby that has swept across the southern hemisphere following the introduction of the Experimental Law Variations, Johnson was anointed rather than appointed six months ago.

Quite simply, his time had come.

The only problem, of course, is that theory is markedly different to practice, and the mystical aura of Johnson’s reign did not even survive the autumn.

Three home internationals; 102 points conceded. The marriage has barely been consummated, but already the honeymoon is over.

Johnson starts this Six Nations campaign at exactly the same crossroads England have been attempting to negotiate since that memorable evening in Sydney.

Attack or defence? Flair versus pragmatism? The green shoots of recovery or the familiar stain of defeat?

England weren’t the only home nation to struggle in the autumn internationals, but their plight felt more dramatic because of its brutality and the fact that it was in direct contrast to the script that had been prepared.

Faced with the might of the southern hemisphere, every element of the English game malfunctioned. Delon Armitage has been hailed as the find of the autumn, but the emergence of an inexperienced full-back, no matter how welcome, is hardly an adequate antidote to a range of gaping wounds.

England’s Six Nations opponents will not present the same problems as their rivals from the opposite side of the world. The breakdown will not be as fiercely contested, the defensive lines will not be as smothering and the attacking will not be as focused or direct.

Mistakes will not be punished as clinically, although it might still be an idea to steer Danny Cipriani away from too many clearances from inside his own 22 if he is recalled before the end of next month.

If England are to mount a recovery, it will surely start here, and for all that the autumn Tests were chastening experiences, there are enough reasons to be positive ahead of this afternoon’s opener with Italy to suggest that England will not embarrass themselves over the course of the next two months. At the moment, that is probably the best that can be expected.

The pack is not the weapon it used to be – and it won’t be in the future given the IRB’s desire to move away from the brutal arts of the forward game towards a more varied tactical palette that will best reflect the pitch conditions of the south.

But in the mud and clarts of a typical Six Nations clash, England will do well to summon the spirit and machismo that drove them to the final of the 2007 World Cup.

Phil Vickery and Andrew Sheridan appear to have rediscovered some of their best form at an opportune moment, while a back row that includes James Haskell and Nick Easter should not be as immobile and witless as it appeared in the autumn.

The backs remain as much of a problem as ever, but perhaps this is the time for Johnson to be bold. The rationale behind the explosive Mike Tindall’s return at outside centre is obvious, but he must be paired with a more visionary presence at number 12. In a squad devoid of flair, this is not the time to be casting Mathew Tait into the cold.

A half-back pairing of the two Dannys – Care and Cipriani – remains the longterm ideal, even if neither will be involved against Italy this afternoon. And while Andy Goode deserves a final shot at the big-time, Jonny Wilkinson’s anticipated return in March at least affords the reassurance of a back-up plan.

The fixture list is relatively kind – even if trips to Wales and Ireland could be chastening experiences – but the importance of hitting the ground running cannot be over-stated. Italy are no fools, and the thought of an away win this afternoon does not bear contemplation. Provided it doesn’t happen, England should kick on to reclaim a position in the tournament’s top three.

THEY won’t win it though, and after last season’s Grand Slam, it’s hard to see past Wales in the search for likely champions.

Warren Gatland’s side are currently everything that England are not – unified, focused, exciting and solid – and by the end of this season’s Six Nations, Ian McGeechan’s Lions team could have a distinctly red hue.

Shane Williams might be the reigning World Player of the Year, but he’s not even the best player in the Wales backline at the moment. Fullback Lee Byrne takes that honour, with James Hook and Stephen Jones raising each other’s standards in their annual tussle for the number ten shirt and Jamie Roberts emerging as a worldclass centre.

And that’s before we even mention a certain Mr Henson.

Things are just as good in the scrum, with the likes of Gethin Jenkins, Alun Wyn- Jones and Ryan Jones providing the platform for Wales’ attacking players to strut their stuff.

It is 11 years since a country won back-to-back Grand Slams, but Wales’ current supremacy means they start this year’s Six Nations with a decent chance.

Their toughest test could actually come tomorrow, as they brave the elements to take on a fired-up Scotland side at Murrayfield.

Scotland are many people’s dark horses this season, strong up front, with prop Euan Murray and hooker Ross Ford complementing their traditional strength in the back row, and gradually more expansive behind the scrum.

Mike Blair is currently leading the race to be the Lions’ number nine, and by the time the Scots wrap up their campaign at Twickenham, winger Sean Lamont could also have forced his way into the team.

Scotland are unlikely to be crowned champions, but if the weather sets in this spring, they might well be the team other sides want to avoid.

Ireland remain a daunting proposition at Croke Park, and Declan Kidney is managing the transition from the country’s old guard to an emerging crop of younger players with characteristic assurance.

The likes of Brian O’Driscoll, Ronan O’Gara and Paul O’Connell continue to form the backbone of Ireland’s starting XV, but also watch out for Tommy Bowe, a Lions long-shot on the wing, and David Wallace, arguably the best flanker in the tournament.

Ireland travel to Wales on the final afternoon, and the game could well turn out to be a championship decider.

France will hope to have a say in that, and their home game with Wales – the first Friday night game in Six Nations history – could be a cracker.

But with France’s club sides having suffered a dreadful Heineken Cup campaign so far, Marc Lievremont faces a difficult task as he attempts to pick his way through the same club-versus-country minefield that has historically hampered the English game.

There is a general malaise about French rugby that has gathered momentum since 2007’s World Cup, and Lievremont’s constant chopping and changing of his starting line-up has simply fuelled the sense of uncertainty.

The French coach has picked just one fly-half for this season’s tournament – Lionel Beauxis – and he has spent most of the season at Stade Francais playing at fullback.

France have confounded expectations before, but it would be a major surprise if they claimed their third title in the space of four years.

Confounding expectations for Italy means winning a match, and there are reasons to believe the Azurri could avoid a duck this year, and not just by beating Scotland.

The decision to field Mauro Bergamasco at scrum-half would be a bold one, but Italy’s traditional forward strength means they will not be taken lightly. Especially at Twickenham this afternoon.

SCOTT WILSON’S SIX NATIONS PREDICTIONS

1. Wales

2. Ireland

3. England

4. Scotland

5. France

6. Italy

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