The biggest event on the jumps racing calendar takes place next week, with the Cheltenham Festival providing its usual mix of thrills and spills. Chief Sports Writer Scott Wilson casts his eyes over all four days of action and attempts to come up with some winners

TUESDAY

Last year, Irish trainer Willie Mullins had two winners and a runner-up on the opening day of the Festival – 12 months on, and it will be a surprise if he is not even more successful this time around.

Mullins will saddle four of the opening five favourites next week, and in the ante-post markets, none are currently trading at more than 2-1. If all four were to come in, it would potentially represent the biggest bookmaking pay-out of all time.

On paper, the weakest of his favourites will be out first. Mullins has described Douvan as “potentially the best horse I’ve ever trained”, but the hotpot in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (1.30) has only run four times in its life, and its two runs in Ireland this winter were uncompetitive affairs on bottomless ground.

Douvan won them at a canter, but the cavalry charge of the Supreme is a completely different challenge, even if this year’s field is likely to be slightly smaller than usual. At 13-8, Douvan is priced up on style rather than substance. He could be a superstar, but you’ll be taking short odds to find out.

His main rival, L’Ami Serge (7-2), is a more attractive proposition, and the Nicky Henderson-trained hurdler’s win in the Tolworth Hurdle is the best form in the field by some margin. At longer odds, the Graham Wylie-owned Shaneshill (12-1) was a top-notch bumper horse, and while this season’s campaign hasn’t gone to plan, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him claim a place.

Un De Sceaux’s assault on the Arkle Challenge Trophy (2.05) will be one of the week’s most thrilling watches. Mullins’ stand-out novice chaser wears his heart on his sleeve, and his demolition of a top-class field in the Irish Arkle had to be seen to be believed.

If he stands up, he wins, but he failed to complete his first run over fences despite being a mile clear when he fell, and odds of 4-7 make no appeal with such a damaging potential chink in the armour.

Vibrato Valtat (5-1) has improved all season and is the likeliest to profit from an Un De Sceaux error, but at huge odds, I’d be tempted to give Court Minstrel (25-1) another chance now the ground should be more to his liking.

The opening handicap, the Ultima Business Solution Handicap Chase (2.40), looks a typically competitive affair, with plans still to be confirmed. Alan King’s Ned Stark (10-1) looks to have the right profile, while Mendip Express (14-1) appears to have been campaigned with this race in mind.

The Champion Hurdle (3.20) is the feature race on day one, and has been billed as a head-to-head between Faugheen (11-10) and The New One (3-1).

It might turn out that way, but if the unbeaten Faugheen reproduces the form he has displayed earlier this season, he could turn things into a procession. The apple of Mullins’ eye is a remarkable performer, and it is hard to imagine any of his rivals living with his sky-high cruising speed as long as he gets into a rhythm.

The Northern Echo:

The New One was badly hampered when finishing third last year and should be staying on strongly up the hill, while the reigning champion, Jezki (9-2), will have his supporters despite a winter campaign that has seen him repeatedly fail to get the better of veteran star Hurricane Fly (8-1). For either to succeed, though, Faugheen will have to flop badly.

If Mullins’ first three favourites have won, Annie Power (4-7) will be all but unbackable in the Mares’ Hurdle (4.00). Aurore D’Estruval might well have given her a race, but with John Quinn’s mare absent because of injury, Annie Power could well prove the most facile winner of the week.

The four-mile National Hunt Chase (4.40) will be significantly more competitive, although the complexion of the race will alter if, as expected, Don Poli and Very Wood are both re-routed to the RSA. Preference, therefore, is for Sego Success (6-1), who has been lightly campaigned to keep him fresh.

The opening day ends with the Chaps Restaurant Barbados Novices’ Handicap Chase (5.15), and I’d give a strong chance to Thomas Crapper (12-1), who was runner-up to Don Poli in last year’s Martin Pipe Hurdle.

 

WEDNESDAY

It’s not just the opening day that sees Mullins dominating the ante-post markets, as the Irish champion trainer also boasts the favourite for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle (1.30), which opens day two.

Nichols Canyon (4-1) is part of Wylie’s formidable Festival team, and would have had an unblemished record in Ireland had he not clipped the final fence at Leopardstown over Christmas.

He’s a worthy favourite, but doesn’t look as bullet-proof as some of Mullins’ other market leaders and, for that reason, is worth taking on.

Beast Of Burden (14-1) has only appeared in four races, but each of his runs has been a marked improvement on the last. Ordo Ab Chao (16-1) won at Cheltenham in January and still boasts bags of potential, and both runners make considerable each-way appeal.

The RSA Chase (2.05) could well prove one of the best races of the meeting, with a host of candidates boasting strong claims.

Don Poli (5-2) was a convincing winner over hurdles at last year’s Festival, and after much consideration, his connections have decided this is the right race for him. Personally, I think he might need a longer trip.

Coneygree (4-1) has been the stand-out novice chaser on this side of the Irish Sea, and while there is still a chance he could line up in the Gold Cup, the RSA is surely the right option at this stage of his development. If he runs, he’ll be a cracking bet. If he doesn’t, David Pipe’s Kings Palace (9-2) could be the way to go.

The Coral Cup (2.40) will be the usual cavalry charge, with a host of unexposed types at the head of the market. Unique De Cotte (14-1) won well at Ascot last time out, and provided he hasn’t risen too high in the weights, should have a decent chance of following up with another victory.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.20) sees two great champions attempting to defend their reputation after injury-hit campaigns. If Sprinter Sacre (5-2) returns to his best, he’ll bring the house down, but so much has to be taken on trust that he’s not an attractive betting proposition.

The Northern Echo:

Sire De Grugy (7-2), on the other hand, is, with his last outing at Chepstow proving his well-being. He didn’t get the credit he deserved for triumphing last year, and a follow-up success would provide a welcome fillip for the smaller trainer.

That said, however, Sire De Grugy has still had a lengthy lay-off of his own, and that’s why I’d also recommend a saver each-way bet on Champagne Fever (6-1). In the first two at each of the last three Festivals, last year’s Arkle runner-up drops back to two miles after a campaign that has seen him tackle a succession of longer trips. He’s a different horse at this time of year, and has to be respected.

The Cross-Country Chase (4.00) lacks its star performer as Phillip Hobbs is keeping Balthazar King in his stable ahead of the Grand National. Any Currency (5-1) will be strongly supported after triumphing at Cheltenham in December, and in this sphere more than any other, course and distance form tends to be key.

The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (4.40) is a typical big-field Festival handicap shoot-out, and Bidourey (8-1) will shorten considerably if he wins tomorrow’s Imperial Cup at Sandown to set up a potentially lucrative double.

Northern winners will be at a premium next week, but having finished runner-up to Hargam and Peace And Co in his last two outings, Donald McCain’s Starchitect (16-1) has been performing in exalted company. A drop back in class could see him succeed.

The Champion Bumper (5.15) brings down the curtain on day two, and with eight potential runners, Mullins could well hold the key.

He saddles the favourite in Bordini (13-2), but history suggests it would be foolish to overlook his supposed lesser lights. Two – Bellshill (20-1) and Up For Review (25-1) – are owned by Wylie, and both could be much more competitive than their odds suggest.

 

THURSDAY

Another day of action; another card that starts with a short-priced Mullins favourite. Vautour (5-2) was a sensational winner of last year’s Supreme, and while his transition to fences hasn’t been seamless, he’s still a deserved favourite in the JLT Novices’ Chase (1.30) that kicks off day three.

Having blotted his copybook when he made a horrendous error while going down to Clarcam on Boxing Day, Vautour restored his reputation somewhat when he cruised to victory at Leopardstown in January. His tendency to make an occasional jumping error is a concern, but anything close to a repeat of his last Festival effort should be good enough to land the spoils.

The Northern Echo:

He can’t afford to let his standards drop too much as Ptit Zig (7-2) has had a superb season for Paul Nicholls and looks sure to run his race. Valseur Lido (6-1) would also have strong place claims if he lines up in this race rather than his alternative options.

The Pertemps (2.05) is always a lively betting heat, and this year’s renewal looks as competitive as ever. There are a host of horses with big reputations at the head of the market, and while he isn’t guaranteed to make the cut, Edeymi (10-1) was barely touched as he qualified for the race at Musselburgh. His strong pervious Festival form means the Irish raider has to be respected.

The same is true of Henderson’s Dawalan (12-1), and you could probably do worse than have a nibble at both of them each way.

This year’s Ryanair Chase (2.40) has cut up badly with Dynaste, Al Ferof and Cue Card all absent because of injury. Don Cossack (7-2) has been performing well in Ireland all winter, but fell on his previous Festival appearance and looks a somewhat uneasy favourite.

Ma Filleule (5-1) tends to be a completely different horse on spring ground, and having performed superbly at both Cheltenham and Aintree last spring, Henderson’s mare showed strong signs of improvement when she chased home Balder Succes last month.

She’s more than capable of landing what looks a weak renewal, with the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Johns Spirit (8-1) making each-way appeal having proved too good for handicap company in the past.

The World Hurdle (3.20) is another race deprived of some of its leading protagonists, most notably last year’s winner, More Of That, who will not be defending his crown.

Saphir Du Rheu (5-1) has been well supported as he follows the Big Buck’s route of returning to hurdles after a disappointing chasing career, while of his two horses at the head of the market, Nicholls appears to prefer Zarkandar (9-2).

Personally, I’d swerve both and chance Rock On Ruby’s (8-1) stamina holding out. The former champion hurdler has been in superb form over two-and-a-half miles this winter, and if he gets the extra four furlongs, he can complete what would be a notable triumph.

The renamed Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (4.00) could see Taquin Du Seuil (8-1) returning to handicap company. If he does, he’ll have every chance. He’s more likely to go in the Ryanair though, so Caid Du Berlais (14-1) is tentatively put forward as an alternative.

The Kim Muir Challenge Cup (4.40) has had some illustrious winners down the years, and is often plundered by a Grand National type. It would be hard to see Broadway Buffalo (16-1) triumphing at Aintree, but he could succeed in this.

 

FRIDAY

Of all the horses running at Cheltenham, few have established such a lofty reputation in as short a space of time as Peace And Co (5-2), the favourite for the Triumph Hurdle (1.30).

Henderson’s four-year-old has only been on the racecourse three times, but his December performance in a juvenile hurdle at Doncaster marked him out as a something potentially very special, and he followed up with an equally authoritative display at Cheltenham in January.

He might well turn out to be the best horse in the race, but the Triumph Hurdle is an extremely tough test for inexperienced novices, and the value in the race has to lie elsewhere.

Henderson also trains Hargam (13-2) and Top Notch (10-1), and it is the latter that makes the most each-way appeal on the evidence of last month’s win at Haydock. If you excuse his failure to see out his last run, Kalkir (16-1) should also be considered.

The Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2.05) has been a profitable race for Irish runners in recent years, and Savello (16-1) would have a big chance if he lines up here instead of one of the chases for which he is entered.

Last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (2.40) produced a 33-1 winner, but with some strong horses at the head of the market, it would be a major surprise if this year’s renewal also went to a big-priced outsider.

Black Hercules (5-1) is a relentless galloper, and given that Wylie appears to make him his best chance of a winner all week, he has to be the likeliest victor. In another strong race for the Irish, Martello Tower (12-1) should also make the frame after a campaign that has featured a string of eye-catching performances on the other side of the Irish Sea.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.20) is the week’s feature race, although there are question marks over a number of the leading protagonists.

Silviniaco Conti (3-1) is a strong favourite, but he failed to get up the hill 12 months ago, and while his King George victory impressed plenty of experienced observers, most of the horses he beat that day were two-and-a-half milers running beyond their preferred distance. Nicholls’ favourite is the classiest horse in the race, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll be the winner.

Last year’s Gold Cup was a messy affair, and Lord Windermere (12-1) and On His Own (20-1), who filled the first two places, will have to improve again to win this year. The same is true of Carlingford Lough (10-1), who will give Tony McCoy his final ride in the race

The Northern Echo:

This could be the year when we witness a changing of the guard, so I’ll put forward Many Clouds (9-1), whose Hennessey win proved he boasts stamina aplenty, and Holywell (10-1), whose performance on the opening day of last year’s Festival suggests he comes alive on better ground.

The Foxhunter Chase (4.00) is often an unpredictable affair, but Salsify (9-1) won two years ago and has clearly been campaigned with a follow-up effort in mind.

The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (4.40) has tended to be a graveyard for favourites, so it might be best to swerve the well-supported Roi Des Francs (5-1). The Mullins camp appear to be sweet on McKinley (14-1), and his odds are likely to contract markedly once the field cuts up.

The final race of the Festival – the Grand Annual (5.15) – has been renamed in honour of McCoy, so whatever has happened in the previous 26 races, the champion jockey’s final Festival mount would be the most popular winner of the week.

It’s likely to be Ned Buntline (6-1), who is owned by McCoy’s boss, JP McManus, and while his form is hardly rock solid, sometimes you have to bet with your heart as well as your head.