With the UK choosing to divorce itself from the EU, Stuart Arnold speaks to Anthony Zito, Professor of European Public Policy at Newcastle University.

What are the ramifications of this vote?

“In the short term there will be a lot of political and economic uncertainty. In the medium term there will have to be a set of exit negotiations with the EU in the next two years. The terms of any new relationship will also have to be discussed to satisfy all 27 countries. There is a lot to play for and a lot up for grabs.”

What effect will ‘Brexit’ have on international businesses such as Nissan who have made their home in the North-East?

“They have made a long term investment so they are not simply going to turn around tomorrow and say it is no longer viable for them to stay. They will be assessing how free trade is going to be between the UK and the continent. They will be making those kind of calculations before in the longer term deciding on their future.”

What about the dire economic warnings we have heard from the Remain camp?

“We have already seen the Bank of England make an intervention. However, the economy isn’t going to collapse and I think some of the apocalyptic statements don’t have that much basis.”

On immigration, what can we now expect?

“If we are going to pull up the drawbridge, there are the logistics to consider and there is also the presumption that you have to start rebuilding staff levels at border control. I believe we also face the scenario that immigration will actually go up before we divorce from the EU.”

Are we now a divided nation?

“There is the question of where Scotland and Northern Ireland go [both voted to stay]. But for me the results have shown a large class, educational, and generational divide.”

How big a shock will this be for the Brussels ‘bureaucrats’?

“I think it will be a mild to strong shock. They have probably bought the idea that we would stay in barely. It might have a chastening effect on the EU elite, but I don’t see the EU collapsing. Most of the rest of the countries have too much of an investment and stake in its survival.”

What impact will ‘Brexit’ have on the international stage?

“There is a question about Britain’s place in the world now. From the US perspective it was attractive having the UK as an ally in the EU. If you look at somewhere like Russia, Putin detests the EU and sees it as a threat and any blow to the EU he will welcome.”

What else can you predict?

“The UK will still be much more ‘in’ Europe than most people realise. Much of our legislation still involves EU laws and standards. At the same time the UK will want to sell things to the EU market, however it is reconfigured. Britain anyway is partly out because it was not a member of Schengen [the open borders agreement] or the Euro. It will now be a lot more out, but not completely out.”