Lib Dems hope the political tide in the city has turned

IN the centre of landlocked Durham stands an incongruous statue of Neptune. The sculpture was erected in the 18th Century as a lasting symbol of an ambitious, but ultimately doomed, plan to turn the city into an inland port.

Nearly 300 years later, Durham is now the scene of an equally ambitious plan by the Liberal Democrats to bring about a sea of change in North-East politics and turn the city into an island of orange in an ocean of Labour red.

Durham, where Labour is defending a slender majority of 3,274, is the Lib Dems’ top target in the North-East.

After years of being a safe Labour seat, the Lib Dems hope the political tide in the city has turned decisively in its favour.

Labour last lost Durham in 1931, when an unpopular Government, led by a Scottish Prime Minister, was faced with a financial crisis, which started in the US and led to a worldwide recession. It was a short-lived blip in an otherwise relentless procession of Labour wins stretching back to 1918.

As recently as the 1997 General Election, Labour’s majority of 22,500 looked as solid as a rock, but it has since been eroded to 13,400 in 2001 and less than 3,300 in 2005.

The Lib Dems now harbour realistic hopes of capturing its first seat in Labour’s historic heartland after building up a seemingly unstoppable momentum over recent years.

At the 2003, the Lib Dems seized control of the now defunct Durham City Council with a landslide victory.

The newly-drawn political map of Durham saw the Liberal Democrats dominating the affluent city centre, while Labour retained the steadfast loyalty of the surrounding pit villages.

For more than four years, sitting MP Roberta Blackman- Woods and contender Carol Woods have fired broadsides at each other on an almost daily basis, wheeling out their biggest political guns in support, but neither has been able to hold the other below the waterline.

The 2007 city council elections, and a succession of byelections produced no significant change, and Labour managed to hold the seat, albeit with a much-reduced majority, at the last General Election.

But in 2008, Labour’s levee appeared to break.

At the elections for the new-look Durham County Council, the Lib Dems broke out of the city centre for the first time and captured a number of seats in Labour’s heartland, including one seat in Deerness Valley and two in Framwellgate Moor. By the end of the night, the Lib Dems held 15 of the 22 council seats which make up the constituency.

One more surge, it seemed, and the Lib Dems would surely breach Labour’s defences and finally take the Westminster seat.

But there is an argument advanced that Lib Dem ambitions may have already reached the high water mark, following the perfect storm of 2005.

The last election was fought against a backdrop of an unpopular war in Iraq, in a student city uneasy over the introduction of university tuition fees and featuring a newly-selected Labour candidate who was, at that time, largely unknown in the city compared to her high-profile rival.

Since then, Dr Blackman- Woods has rarely been out of the spotlight, with campaigns on constituency issues as varied as the licensing of lapdancing clubs and rural bus services, while managing to emerge unscathed from the Parliamentary expenses scandal.

Both nationally and locally, Labour appear to have clawed back some lost ground.

The party may also benefit from the national resurgence of the Conservative Party.

Some of the headway made by the Liberal Democrats in Durham in recent elections has been achieved by squeezing the Tories and portraying themselves as the only viable alternative to Labour.

As recently as 1997, the Conservatives were second in Durham with more than 8,500 votes, or 17.5 per cent. By 2005, the vote had halved to just under 4,200, or 9.4 per cent.

It is widely believed that the Tory vote may have fallen to its absolute bedrock and the party, which is fielding student Nick Varley as its candidate, has high hopes of regaining ground from the Liberal Democrats.

Labour may yet directly benefit from the realistic prospect of a Conservative Government, which may persuade traditional supporters in the pit villages, still scarred by the experience of Thatcherism in the Eighties, to return to the party fold.

While as little as a year ago, the Lib Dems may have looked like a shoo-in for the seat, Durham now appears to be too close to call, a judgement reflected by the bookies odds which have the main protagonists neck and neck.

In fact, so close is the contest that it may ultimately be decided by the performance of the minor parties.

Last time around, Durham Cobbler Tony Martin polled 1,600 votes, or 3.6 per cent of the vote, while standing for Veritas. This time around there are two minor parties which may influence the eventual outcome.

Nigel Coghill-Marshall, the UK Independence Party’s County Durham chairman, is standing. His party won about 1,200 votes when it last contested Durham in 2001.

Meanwhile, the BNP is fielding Ralph Musgrave. It is difficult to gauge the extent of BNP support, but the party fielded seven candidates in predominantly Labour-voting areas across the city during the 2008 unitary authority elections. In total it polled more than 1,300 votes, Mr Musgrave getting 285 of them in Framwellgate Moor.

Ultimately, the election is likely to be about whether Labour can retain, and crucially turn out, its traditional vote in the villages.