IRAQ provided a confused response yesterday to the demand it removes

anti-aircraft batteries from the southern no-fly zone immediately.

Officials in Baghdad issued bellicose statements, Saddam Hussein

remained silent, and the Iraqi UN ambassador met diplomats from America,

Britain, France, and Russia.

Mr Nizar Hamdoon handed over a four-page reply to their 48-hour

ultimatum, asked for more meetings to discuss the situation, and invited

a delegation from Congress to visit Baghdad to improve relations.

However, he also reaffirmed Iraq's right to move its military equipment

wherever it wanted. Analysts saw the moves as playing for time.

American intelligence sources reported the batteries, or at least some

of them, have been moved in the past two days, but were unable to say

whether it was a tactical shift or if they have been pulled back north

of the 32nd parallel. Poor weather over Iraq prevented clear observation

by reconnaissance planes and satellites.

President Bush reaffirmed his insistence that the surface-to-air

missile systems must go, but took care not to specify what he might do

if the ultimatum is ignored. The deadline is 10.30pm today, midnight in

Baghdad.

Meanwhile in London, the Foreign Office summoned Mr Zuhair Ibrahim,

head of the Iraqi interests section at the Jordanian Embassy to drum

home the ultimatum.

The idea is to keep Saddam Hussein guessing, in the hope that the

batteries will be quietly removed. The Americans and their British,

French and Russian allies would probably accept an Iraqi promise to move

the batteries later, in a week or so.

If no promise is given, there can be little doubt Mr Bush will order

American forces in the region to eliminate the four batteries, and

perhaps also to destroy the air base north of the no-fly zone from which

Iraq has been flying patrols challenging American planes.

Mr Bush has apparently decided to do nothing about Bosnia, leaving the

problem to Mr Clinton. He perhaps plans to depart in a last-minute blaze

of glory in Iraq.

If Saddam gives him the excuse, the operation will probably take place

this weekend. The air war against Baghdad began right on time, midnight

on January 16, 1991, just as the last UN ultimatum expired. Mr Bush will

probably be equally punctual this time.