IT IS the question that cannot be directly discussed at the Commonwealth Games, yet it is impossible to go anywhere in Glasgow without sensing its presence.

Yes or no? An independent Scotland or a retention of the current British Isles? On September 18, the Scottish nation will decide, and everything that happens on this side of the border between now and then will be imbued with special significance as a result.

Even the most personal of acts has suddenly become extremely political in the build-up to the referendum poll.

With the Games organisers adamant the event will remain strictly neutral, the likes of Alex Salmond and David Cameron have had to be extremely careful with their public utterances so as not to be accused of making political capital out of something that is meant to be about sport rather than soundbites.

Last Wednesday’s opening ceremony had the potential to stray one way or the other, but most observers agree it trod the finest of lines fairly successfully. For every raucous rendition of Flower of Scotland since, there has been warm applause to greet competitors from England.

And yet eventually it’s going to prove impossible to remain neutral in this debate.

Judgement day is beckoning, and while the overwhelming reaction to the referendum in England is still mild indifference – which is surprising given how radically things would change if there was to be a yes vote, especially in the North-East – the mood in Scotland is beginning to polarise around the two camps.

The yes campaign, championed largely, although not exclusively, by the SNP, is the more visual of the two groupings. They’ve arranged for huge statuesque YES letters to be erected in the gardens of supporters – the first is visible only four or five miles across the border on the roadside of the A68 – and designed wristbands and pin badges to help get the message across.

It seems trendy and progressive to be saying yes, hence the welter of celebrity endorsements backing independence and the high level of support among young Scots for a break-away state. Having been in Glasgow for a week or so, I’ve certainly noticed the number of teenagers and students screaming their support for independence on their T-shirts or wrists.

The no camp appears to be less vocal and more hidden, although if the most recent opinion polls are to be believed, they still boast a lead of around ten percentage points.

That’s a healthy enough margin, although it’s hardly an insurmountable gap with around a quarter of those eligible to vote still believed to be in the group marked ‘don’t know’.

I’ve certainly been surprised by the strength of the independence movement, having last lived in Scotland almost a decade and a half ago when the Parliament in Edinburgh was still a construction site and the SNP were regarded as something of a lunatic fringe.

DEVOLUTION has undoubtedly changed Scotland. Whatever happens on polling day next month, it’s a more confident country now, assured of its place in an increasingly globalised world and willing to be bold and ambitious in the future.

Don’t assume that a no vote would mean the end of the independence debate because while the SNP would undoubtedly have to reposition itself in such an eventuality, it’s possible, even among no voters, to detect a sense that Scotland’s position within the union has irrevocably changed.

What is driving the independence issue? A mistrust of the Conservative party and the coalition government undoubtedly, although it’s interesting that two or three people I’ve spoken to have cited the failings of Tony Blair and the last Labour government as a key catalyst.

How do I think things will go next month?

I’m still expecting Scotland to say no. But for all the economic uncertainties, I suspect it’ll be closer than the current polls are showing and I wouldn’t rule out another vote in a decade or so.

Self-determination is a powerful ambition, and now that the ball is at least partially rolling, it’s going to be extremely hard to stop.

That’s not to say that Britain, as both a political construct and a conduit for personal identity, has had its day, or that the Scots are all rabid nationalists. If anything, I’ve been surprised by the lack of anti-English sentiment during the Games. It just means this feels more like a different country to England than at any other time I’ve been here, which is an interesting position to be in with such a seismic decision looming.