9:56am Thursday 11th February 2010
MUDDLE, confusion or disarray – take your pick for the word that best describes the current condition of the Conservative Party.
The would-be government is notching up an extraordinary number of slips and splits – with the General Election probably just 84 days away.
Read the true-blue commentators and bloggers – the ones who fear the victory they took for granted for so long may now be slipping away – and feel their pain.
Meanwhile, Labour MPs try to convince me that private polling puts them within touching distance. Some believe they could yet emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament.
Make no mistake, David Cameron is still the most likely next Prime Minister, but the nerves are fraying as he struggles to fix the wheels on the spluttering Tory chariot.
The leader’s troubles began when he confessed he “messed up” over tax cuts to encourage marriage – appearing to shelve the policy, only to resurrect it a few hours later.
The policy is still as clear as mud, with the favoured option of a transferable allowance simply too expensive (at up to £5bn), while anything less will be too feeble to persuade couples to wed, or stay wed.
Gleeful Labour ministers are now dubbing it the “John Terry tax” – using the example of the sacked England football captain to illustrate how men who cheat on their wives would still benefit.
Elsewhere, there was Ken Clarke telling me he had ordered a last-gasp rethink on scrapping regional development agencies – although the Tories then tried to pretend he hadn’t.
And, last week, the UK Statistics Authority rapped Chris Grayling, the man who expects to be the next Home Secretary, for blatantly fiddling figures to claim a non-existent leap in violent crime.
Then there is the big one – Mr Cameron’s screeching U-turn on his vow to cut the yawning budget deficit as soon as he reaches Downing Street, now replaced by a pledge of no “extensive cuts”.
When Shadow Chancellor George Osborne popped up to mount a defence, he was openly mocked by journalists. One inquired if “year of change” had become “year of tweak”.
Worse, Mr Osborne was unable to say if he would cut deeper than already announced (worth £270m to £1bn, depending on your figures) because either “yes” or “no” would put him in a deeper pickle. Answer “yes” and the next question is: “Which schools and hospitals are you axing?” Answer “no” and, well, it’s clearly year of tweak.
Is there any precedent for a party’s key economic policy – a promise to clean up the fiscal mess faster – collapsing with polling day in sight? To coin Mr Cameron’s own phrase, they can’t go on like this.
Margaret Thatcher famously said: “The lady’s not for turning.” But her modern-day party is spinning like a top.
IT’S a “death tax”, scream the Tory posters highlighting the Government’s possible proposal for a £20,000 levy to prevent the elderly having to sell their homes when they enter care. But what about the Conservatives’ own plan for an £8,000 levy, widely ridiculed for being simply too little to solve the growing social care crisis? It’s a “chance to pay a one-off premium of £8,000”, said Treasury spokesman Philip Hammond. Ah, that’s cleared that one up.
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