So, how’s it hanging?

In 2005

LABOUR won a 66 seat overall majority.

It had 66 seats more than all the other parties put together. This meant it could pass laws and govern effectively.

However, going into the 2010 election, byelection defeats and boundary changes have reduced Labour’s overall majority to 48.

The 2010 Maths THERE are 650 seats, four more than in 2005.

This means, to get an overall majority, a party has to win 326 of them.

If Labour loses 24 seats, it will dip below the 326 line and lose its overall majority.

If the Conservatives win 116 seats, they will go beyond the 326 line and form a majority government.

Anything in between, will result in a hung parliament.

A hung parliament

A HUNG parliament is when no party has an overall majority. The biggest party could form a minority government but, due to its lack of majority, the smaller parties could gang up on it and out-vote it.

This is where the Lib Dems become kingmakers.

They are likely to win 50 to 70 seats.

Their leader, Nick Clegg, would negotiate with Gordon Brown and David Cameron. Whoever offered the best deal would win their support and together they would form a coalition government.

That deal might consist of a promise to reform the voting system, or a seat or two in the Cabinet – perhaps the Lib Dems’ respected finance spokesman Vince Cable would be made Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The Lib Dems are acting very coy about whom they would get into bed with in the event of a hung parliament.

The Swingometer

SWINGS between 1.5 per cent and seven per cent to the Tories will result in a hung parliament.

The smaller the swing, Labour will be the biggest party in the parliament. A 4.5 per cent swing or larger will make the Conservatives the biggest party.

Hung parliament history

THERE were three hung parliaments in the 20th Century: 1910, 1929 and 1974. All were short-lived.

In February 1974, Edward Heath’s Conservatives won 297 seats and Harold Wilson’s Labour won 301. As Mr Heath was the existing Prime Minister, he was allowed to try to form a coalition government with the Liberals, led by Jeremy Thorpe, who had 14 seats.

After four days, the negotiations broke down, and so Mr Wilson formed a minority Labour government. He called a second General Election in October 1974 and squeaked home with a three-seat majority.

The 2010 polls

THE Conservatives currently average a lead of between six and eight per cent over Labour, which would make them the biggest party, but between 40 and 20 seats short of an overall majority.

However, the trend shows the Conservative lead widening slightly. Despite one poll yesterday giving them only a four point lead – which would mean Gordon Brown incredibly increased his overall majority – the most recent polls give them a ten point lead. They are nearly through the 40 per cent mark, while Labour are in danger of dropping beneath 30 per cent.

This would give them about a ten seat overall majority.

The Conservatives hope, though, that because their Belize-domiciled deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft has been concentrating his money on the fight in 150 of the most marginal constituencies – like Stockton South – they will perform better than the polls suggest in those constituencies and so give them a larger majority.

In conclusion

THERE is a growing feeling that a hung parliament would be disastrous for Britain. With the country facing an enormous budget deficit, it needs firm and decisive government – and a minority or coalition government could not provide that.

In fact, to govern effectively a government really needs at least a 20-seat majority because with by-election defeats, rebellions, defections and deaths, its majority soon gets whittled away.

A hung parliament often requires a second election to be fought soon afterwards. This would not be popular with the public, who are already tired of politicians, and it would not be popular with the parties, who do not have the funds.

So the choice in this election is between the fresh start offered by David Cameron or even Nick Clegg, as opposed to the steadiness of Gordon Brown who protests that any change in government would crush the green shoots of recovery that he has been carefully nurturing.

But before polling day on May 6 – Tony Blair’s birthday, incidentally – two great unknowns come into play.

Firstly, this really is the first internet election.

No longer do politicians search the streets of Middle England for characters like Mondeo Man or Worcester Woman whom research tells them are stereotypical floating voters. Instead, they target mumsnet, a website where parents swap tips. To a politician, mumsnet is better than a village hall speech for reaching out to potential voters.

No longer do politicians just walk the streets stuffing leaflets through letterboxes. They blog and they text, they tweet and they Facebook, they YouTube and they email.

The Tories led the way when they realised David Cameron was equipped with the perfect surname to regularly film homemade videos on a web camera. He became Webcam, and at the weekend he was joined by his wife, Samantha.

So we had SamCam on the Webcam, the single syllable reflecting the lack of time in the modern world.

But Labour has Sarah Brown, one of the most followed twitterers on the microblogging site Twitter, and it has Contact Creator, an email programme which allows it to send out messages tailored to an individual’s concerns.

The Lib Dems are planning a series of videos by comedians that they hope will go “viral” – they will be spread like a cold from person to person without the party having to pay for the publicity.

AS well as the internet imponderable, this election will feature the first televised debates between the leaders of the three main parties. This election will revolve around their personalities more than before, and the campaign will be dominated by the build-up to the weekly shows and their analytical aftermath.

Mr Clegg will be the winner, as he will suddenly appear on an equal footing with the big two. Mr Cameron should also be a winner – he has a warm smile and an easy charm that eludes Mr Brown, who has a wooden nature and a weird jawdrop.

But the TV debates, starting next Thursday on ITV1, will not be about original oratory.

They will be about cock-ups and the avoidance thereof.

It should all make fascinating viewing.