STOCK markets, and their participants, are naturally forward-looking.

Well, most of them.

Accordingly, because March 6 2009 marked the post-crisis nadir for the UK stock market, so we scour the horizon for that which will bring to an end a bull market into its sixth year, and one which has already overcome several hiatuses touted to end the run.

There is a groundswell of opinion that, domestically, the eventual and inevitable rise in interest rates will be that event.

Corporates, with profit margins aggrandised by low borrowing costs will see margins eroded.

Profit growth, the driver of share prices, will slow and fall away.

Consumers, the engine room of the recovery, would struggle as credit card bills and mortgage repayments became excessively expensive and would tighten their belts.

Then, the tills stop a-ringing.

It is clear that consumers and companies alike have been beneficiaries of this low rate environment.

I am certainly not arguing that, all else being equal, rate rises won’t be a net disadvantage for people and firms.

It’s just that, well, all else isn’t equal.

There are other more positive, weightier factors which could outweigh the negatives, at least for the short-to-medium term.

An important factor in all of this is that companies have undergone, and are still undergoing, a massive process of deleveraging.

They owe far less than they once did.

Thus, whilst the cost of servicing some debt will increase, the overall level of expenditure on debt is at a reduced level.

Furthermore, many firms have capitalised on sustained low interest rates to call or tender expensive debt, and reissue at greatly reduced rates, in doing so saving themselves money and locking in at that low rate for a number of years.

This is much in the same way as those mortgage owners who have signed up to fixed rate deals and are insulated against rate rises for the time being.

Stung by the credit crunch, I don’t see companies as being in any great rush to re-leverage any time soon.

I also believe firms are still able to grow revenues in an environment of rising rates.

The consumer is still not brimming with confidence, and we don’t yet have real income growth.

That said, the Bank of England last week signalled that the time is approaching where wage rises may surpass our relatively benign rate of inflation.

More and more we hear key institutions urging the recovery to be repositioned so growth comes from investment in business, and by selling ever more to the world than we buy in.

Here, a sustained economic resurgence from the Eurozone in particular would be very useful.

What of those mortgage costs?

At a local seminar last week, key fund management company Invesco Perpetual estimated the total increase to monthly mortgage repayments resulting from a quarter-point rise in rates as around £20.

This is based on only just over one third of us actually having a mortgage, I was shocked too, an average value of £92,000, and a huge shift towards fixed rate deals since base rates are chronically low.

No real consumption-supressing tightening of belts needed here, then.

On the rates themselves, I think we are in danger of overestimating the scale of any hikes.

Inflation remains below the Bank of England’s two per cent target, and may be low for some time, thus the need for aggressive rate rises is vastly reduced.

Plus, the financial crisis has very likely torn up the relevance of previous long term average interest rates.

As ever, I must sound a note of caution.

Rate hikes should be gradual due to the length of time they take to permeate the real economy.

Furthermore, interest rates are only one part of the fragile ecosystem that are the markets for risk assets, and any number of other factors could cause markets to turn.

My argument is not that the halcyon days will last ad infinitum, but what I am saying is that it is far too simplistic to assume the start of the rate hikes will be the death knell for equities.

Nick Williams is an assistant director at Brewin Dolphin and offers advice on a wide range of financial services to private clients, trusts, charities and pension funds. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The information contained in this article has been taken from public sources and is believed to be reliable and accurate, but without further investigation cannot be warranted as to accuracy or completeness.